UpDown Stock Analysis Comments For 'BZH is an excellent long term investment' (BZH)

RE: BZH is an excellent long term investment (BZH)

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:00:23 EDT

"Therefore, there is no conceivable way that such a company as BZH will go out of business" If BZH was the only housing company than I'd agree to some extent. They don't hold a monopoly on the market and are subject to being beat by their competitors. Moreover, you are correct in stating that in the long term, BZH has a great opportunity to rebuilding its company once the housing market resurrects itself. Now, we don't know the time it will take for the housing market to stop its downward spiral and move back up, but I think you're ignoring that fact that if BZH doesn't have the funds to last through the downward trend it wouldn't be a surprise to see that company declare bankruptcy (or at least liquidate its supplies.I don't pay much attention to BZH but SPF has liquidated its Arizona business in order to survive the housing market.) In no way is there a guarantee that either company will last through the end of the housing crisis. Btw, I want to understand what you mean by "housing market is an inelastic market. This means that it can not be done without in today's society" What does inelastic mean to you in this case?

RE: BZH is an excellent long term investment (BZH)

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:53:25 EDT

By zalgon

I like your review, and definitely think it merits more than the paltry one star that the other person gave you (and failed to explain the single star...)! How do you reconcile the rise in gas prices, and the tendency that will probably arise as a result: people will downsize their homes and move closer to the city. Wouldn't downsizing, buying less expensive homes, and moving closer to the city into older homes lead to a long-term slump in the market even in demographics show an oncoming boom in 20-somethings? Assuming the US population is growing at 2% per year (which it most certainly is not! See e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States), how can the growth seen in previous years be resumed? Even if everyone in the US owns a home the ultimate growth rate for this industry will match, or be slightly lower than, population growth. Will all the other homes built in recent decades be torn down? Will city centres empty out despite increasing fuel and food prices? I think a careful analysis of other economic factors could color your analysis and lead to a somewhat less rosy view (though I think you're probably right to some extent).