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Lingke Wang

$20.04
UNITED STATES
11/25/07
$1,327,641.64

1
08/05/09
113.2%
32.8%
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Stock Pick by Lingke Wang

GYMB: Children + Christmas + No Competition + Buyback = $$$$

Start trading GYMB with real money!

Rate Analysis
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7 ratings
Posted 715 days ago on 12/07/07

GYMB will go UP
$40.00 on 3/07/08
$41.31 (21.57% from time of market call)
$40.37 (18.81%)
on 4/09/08

The holiday season is coming up and children everywhere are wanting presents. As any person would know, holidays=spending=field day for retails... good retails. Gymboree is one of these good retails. It sells children's clothing - not teenage clothing, children as in under 12. So why is Gymboree so much better than any of the other clothing companies? Well, first of all, Gymboree is one of only three major companies in the children's clothing business. The teen and adult apparel industry have a significantly greater competition. The CHILDREN's clothing business however, is mainly taken by Gymboree, The Children's Place, and Gap. The Children's Place last year was a big competitor. This year, it has fallen apart. Note for example, the approximately 50% in price. It also has recently undergone CEO changes which usually cause chaos hence this means it is not as prepared as Gymboree for the upcoming holiday season. Gap on the other hand is also not a big competitor. Gap is so diversified, it is a player in all age groups and thus does not put a great deal of attention on the children's clothing. Furthermore, the Gap brand name isn't becoming much more popular. So we see that Gymboree is clearly at the top of the children's clothing market. It is basically in a position to completely dominate this holiday. But of course, speculations such as this are never a good investments without some solid foundations. Gymboree has a very good balance sheet and income statement. The February 10-K reveals that last year's net income was almost double that of the year before. Furthermore, its short term assets can cover its long term liabilities by almost 1.5 fold. Its most recent 10-Q shows that at the end of 13 weeks August, its net income was 10 times that of the year before. At the end of 26 weeks August, its net income increased 45%. This is the momentum growth that will help shoot Gymboree over the top during this holiday season. Finally, as if that weren't enough reason to buy the stock, the company just announced earlier last week that they would increase their share-buyback program. They had just completed a 50 million dollar buy back and now they are going for another 25 million dollar buy back. Sometimes buybacks are just used to boost share prices... but in Gymboree's case, its solid foundations and its renewal of a buyback program shows the confidence the company has in itself. Gymboree is the stock to have for this season. It's position to dominate, lack of competition, solid fundamentals, and buyback program are three reasons why this stock will soar.

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Comments

Posted 12/9/2007, 7:46 pm

Raiddin, I agree that it is a cyclical company, but I think you are making too big of an assumption. The company itself has very strong fundamentals so even if it isn't during holiday shopping season, the company is still strong.

Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that now is a good time to get into Gymboree and make an easy profit in a short amount of time.

Posted 12/9/2007, 7:35 pm

The company is cyclical, you cant rate them based on three month time frames.

If you did, then it could be worth 40 in the 4th quarter and 20 in each of the other quarters, which wouldn't really make any sense.

Even if it did work like that, you would have meta buyers who bought in quarter 3 in anticipation of quarter 4. Then you would have people that buy in anticipation of people buying in quarter 3, then you would have meta meta meta buyers who buy in quarter 1, and meta x 4 buyers who buy 4th quarter in the previous year.

End result, you eventually get a relatively stable price based on forward 12 month projected results anyway.

Also, while buybacks are promising in general, they aren't promising when enacted by bad management. Since you didn't investigate how well the board manages shareholder value, its impossible to tell how good the buyback is for shareholders.

Read some books on Warren Buffett and you will probably hear a couple descriptions of companies that are only worth 50 a share buying back their stocks for 75 a share and flushing a lot of money down the drain, whether it is for PR or to screw the shareholders to benefit the management through stock options. Apparently it is better to indirectly dilute rather than to directly dilute to the same extent.

Raiddinn

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