TBT: Go Short On the U.S. Dollar - Go Long TBT

Justification - 2009 U.S. Gov't deficit likely to reach 2 trillion, and 1.5 trillion in 2010. All of the liquidity injections by the Fed will flood the markets with excess cash - and by 2010 the money multiplier will begin to rise. At that point inflation expectations will begin to take hold and prices will likely make suprising leaps. In tandem with increased lending and money demand will be an economic environment characterized by a shortage of goods and services. The deflation of 2009 will cause businesses to downsize and dramatically reduce production. Higher demand + Lower supply = Higher price bidding. Rising inflation and risk premiums will motivate holders of U.S. government debt to demand higher returns across all maturities. My projection - TBT will reach $65.00 by the end of 2010. Personally, I will buy TBT once the Ten note yields 1.70%. (2009 will be characterized by higher than expected price deflation). Of course, the yields on the 10-30 year notes may linger at low levels for some time due to Fed buying - but its unrealistic to expected long term rates to hold at low levels for too long. Public deficits and debt levels are at unsustainable levels. Further, this is not the 1940's when the U.S. was on its way up... (The ten year rate linger around 2.5% for years in the 40's)