AAPL will go DOWN
$68.00 on 7/22/09
$199.92 (126.26% from time of market call)
Would Apple beautify the already good quarter to cover the Jobs health issue? Nah.. Cell phones later in the year prove to be low margin in the face of desperate competition. The brand new and less than independent (by comparison to the base) Mac users can prove to be a high cost to support over the first two quarters with clueless PC users accustomed to disposable this and that strangling AAPL support. It costs something more than expected in the past. They already had the low-cost-to-support user base. This increased cost together with possibly lower margins on weaker sales Q1 in light of the overall dismal climate could cloud the mid year. Over the year without Jobs every little problem will seem a big problem with out the benefit of a familiar reassurance and prognostication. There will be turmoil this year and margin compression on every front. While not the singular wizard at AAPL Jobs could exPLAIN it to the mac public and the public paid a premium.
Will the new customers pay as well? Well....no.