Sverrir Halld. profile image Sverrirh

Sverrir Halld.

$0.01
ICELAND
1/19/09
$593,267.53

3
01/21/09
-36.5%
-40.7%
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Stock Pick by Sverrir Halld.

GNK: No base for sharp rise

Start trading GNK with real money!

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Posted 419 days ago on 1/22/09

GNK will go DOWN
$13.60 on 2/22/09
$21.25 (32.23% from time of market call)

Dry Bulk industry is suffering severly now. Baltic Dry index is now around 850-870, but was around 11.500 in june 2008. Bulk shipping companies have been buying themselves out of new-building(new ships) contracts with losses but better than owning worthless brand new ships. The industry is oversized already. China´s economy is in shrinking and shipping dry bulk between continentals is a large proportion of the business, esp. Amer./Eur.-Asia. Dry bulk ships carry such things as coal, steel and other raw materials, which demand for is sharply falling everywhere. The company rose over 18% today which I think is based on unrealistic expectations since the company has been falling also sharply lately. I sold short at 16.06 and am convinced of within short time it will fall again at least to 13.60$.

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Comments

Posted 2/12/2009, 12:54 pm

I apoligize, the Baltic dry is now just about 2000p. not 1500, (it´s flying fast), in Jan. it was about 1000p.

Posted 2/12/2009, 12:39 pm

My plan in January came trough, I sold short for 16.06 and covered 2 days later at 13.60. What has happened since then is that Baltic dry index took, off flying up more than 50% in very short time. No one knows for how long it will stay like that or if it is going to go up even more. The rise of the index is related to China´s in- and export. This stock (as many dry shipping stocks) can go both ways now, bankruptcy or Baltic dry to 6- 8000 points or more (about 1500 today). This means great risk but possible great profit. It can easily double in price over few weeks time. So if you have a good appitite for risk in change of great return, this is the stock for you. The history tells us that Baltic index always takes off around this time and will fly up for few months, usually up to about 8000 points. It went to about 11.500 last summer. If the Baltic flies to 7000 points, the price for this stock may triple or quadriple in value over few months. It has happened often before. But these times are unique and no one knows if that can happen in 2009.

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