FSLR: Solid

First Solar is the leading producer of photovoltaic cells. It employs a thin layer of cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity It operates globally and has its major production lines in Malaysia and other countries, although it's headquartered in the U.S., FSLR is miles ahead of it's competiors and recently reached an industry milestone of reducing its cost per watt to under $1. In a recent report the cost per watt was said to be only $.93. The company expects to decrease its cost per watt 5% y/y. Quarterly earnings released last week killed street expectations and is true evidence that the company continues to grow, even during a time when financing is tough. First Solar sells it's products to project developers, system integrators, and operators of renewable energy projects in the United States and Europe. It currently does most of its operations in Germany, but management stated that it is tapping into markets in the U.S. Catalysts: My main thesis is based a top down analysis of the broader market for renewable energy, and the world economy. In the 2nd half or '09 into 2010 I expect Obama's stimulus for infastructure and renewable energy to begin to take effect. This, in turn with a projected economic recovery will bring a renewable energy boom,in which FSLR, in their dominating market share can exploit. Last years revenues were $1246.3M, a 147% increase, year over year. FY08 EPS was $4.24. 1st quarter revenues FY09 were $418M. with an EPS of $1.99 After completing a model i expect the following: FY09E Revenues: $1857.6M FY09E EPS: $7.78 FY10E Revenues: $2,507M FY10E EPS: $9.39 Some notes: It amazed me how much larger FSLR is compared to their competiors. They just made an acquisiton of OptiSolar Some risks are that only 6 customers account for over 50% of revenue. Based on several valuations I found an average valuation of $248.70. My high valuation was $302.87 based on a EV/EBITvaluaton. As you can see there is tremendous upside to this stock. As for buying in now i would wait a few days for the price to drop, which i think it will because of the earnings suprise, and then buy in.