CROX will go DOWN
$1.00 on 11/13/09
$7.86 (39.36% from time of market call)
SOMEHOW, Crox has managed to sell these odd shoes. There clearly is a market for them. The fact that they have not be able to churn a profit concerns me big time. The margin on these shoes is enormous.
Here are my concerns:
1. Management - John Duerden has been known to drive companies to the ground, along with the Ex-Circuit City board. Most of management has sold off their holdings, just before the large decline.
2. Demand - I see demand falling in the US, and the trend will most likely follow in Europe. Asia demand has picked up which is good, but if they fail to grow in Asia, there is little room for growth elsewhere. It looks OK for now, but look at the next concern.
3. Counterfeits - Counterfeits will become an increasing problem and the litigation for this is expensive. CROX will not be able to keep up with their IP enforcement at a reasonable price. Once counterfeits flood the Asia market, I think we will see a decline in demand in this market.
Their cash position and balance sheet looks decent. I still believe they are selling ugly shoes, and the majority of the CROX surge has ended. I hate to label it a "fad" because they are still producing a respectable revenue, but I'm not very impressed with their diversified lineup. All of their shoes appear ugly, and I think it will only be a matter of time before people choose alternative shoes.
CROX is low today therefore time to buy bcause it has decent P/E,
great PEG ratio, insignificant debt, good cash reserve, and great
price with low risk. I have made a 26% profit b/s CROX at right
Hmm. Let's look at two charts here:
2007/2008 CROX Price Chart:
2007/2008 Insider Selling:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com. are all the insiders selling
then? =) They knew this stock was overvalued, and instead of trying
to mitigate the sucker rally damages, they continued to misinform
From what I read, although cannot guarantee accuracy, John Duerden
left Reebok because he could not obtain the position he desired.
Seems very immature to me...
My comment about John Duerden was based off of the bankruptcy of
Just to add, what do you mean "management has sold off their
holdings, just before the large decline?" If you're
talking about John Duerden, when he came on, CROX was worth $1.14,
now it's above $5, and there has been no recorded activity on
Reuters about him selling any of his stock. So no decline since
Duerden, and no stock sell-off by Duerden. Where are you getting