BZH will go DOWN
$4.00 on 11/10/08
$4.72 (-52.71% from time of market call)
I've heard a lot of the arguments about going long on this stock and they do not sound too compelling as the risk/reward ratio does not check out. With massive home inventories, the fact that the company has not posted their financials in a couple quarters and are being investigated by the FBI scares me a bit. Even if there is a "spring" in housing, it will likely be too late to help this company. I'm quite surprised the stock has risen to levels around $12 which made me nervous since I shorted at $10.68. Besides, many people including The Economist say that housing still has another 10-15% to go before bottoming out. Assuming BZH is managed sufficiently, can the company hold their breath that long? It always takes housing longer to recover from recessions, so going long on this stock is just silly. Yes at the current levels this stock may be cheap and be quite a speculative trade, but remember it can go to $0 VERY quickly, putting the shorts in a very good mood.