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Lingke Wang profile image wlingke

Lingke Wang

$20.04
UNITED STATES
11/25/07
$1,327,641.64

1
08/05/09
113.2%
32.8%
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Stock Pick by Lingke Wang

NOV: Unreasonable pullbacks on NOV

Start trading NOV with real money!

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3 ratings
Posted 469 days ago on 8/09/08

NOV will go UP
$90.00 on 2/09/09
$42.79 (-39.32% from time of market call)

NOV is the number 1 oil rig producing company. It recently pulled back from its high of 90 to 70 for no reason. On July 29, it reported a very good quarter and went up slightly. The next week, it tanked almost 9 points. The main reason for this is because oil prices have dropped from 150 at its high to 120 and most likely down to 110 in the future. However, it is completely illogical to think that oil prices today would affect NOV. If you look at its backlog, they are from almost 2 years ago when oil was much lower. Most of the orders that are being filled today is from 2006 when oil was below 100. Rigs take upwards of 12 months or more to build and if NOV has had that much business from just backlogs in 2006 when oil was <100, I assume that with oil >100 (regardless of whether its 110 or 150), NOV's orders wouldnt decrease. You dont see NOV getting cancellations from companies that bought rigs when oil was <100 now that oil has dropped from 150 to 120 so its earnings are basically unaffected by oil prices. Essentially, the market is being unintelligent trading NOV down with oil price drops. Its a great opportunity to increase your holdings in it. I bought up this thing around 74. If it gets down to 65, I'm doubling my positions. I believe it might meet some resistance around this point, 70, and if it breaks it, it will go down to as low as 65 until people realize that this company is way too cheap. Whether starting at 70 or 65, this thing is poised to pump itself up to 90 by the next earnings release.

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